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The newest Trends® in Agricultural Land & Lease Values 2026 publication confirms what my team and I are already seeing firsthand across the Central Coast: vineyard values have softened overall, but the best vineyards are still trading in a different category.
The report is published by the California Chapter of the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers (ASFMRA) and is available through CALASFMRA at calasfmra.com. CALASFMRA notes that Trends® has been providing land and lease value information since 1990 and describes the publication as a leading resource for rural property value information in California and Nevada.
In the Central Coast section, the publication states that 2025 agricultural real estate values in Region 6 were mostly stable to softening, with only the best properties in the best locations maintaining historical values. It also notes fewer transactions in 2025, no shortage of available properties, and clearly softer vineyard values overall. At the same time, the report emphasizes that buyer caution has increased due to higher production and financing costs, softer commodity pricing, and broader economic uncertainty.
These are exactly the forces widening the gap between premium vineyards and everything else.
The official Trends® publication also notes that the report is supported by confirmed sale comparables allocated by ASFMRA-trained appraisers.
The big vineyard takeaway: the bottom end matters
One of the biggest signals in this year’s report is the published vineyard value range itself.
For the Central Coast counties shown in the report, vineyard values include ranges such as $20,000 to $45,000 per acre in Monterey County, $15,000 to $75,000 per acre in San Luis Obispo County, and $20,000 to $75,000 per acre in Santa Barbara County, with the value trend marked decreasing in each of those vineyard categories.
That $15,000-per-acre bottom end is especially notable.
According to the historic trend data, we have not seen those kinds of numbers for vineyards since the mid-1990s. That is a meaningful reset point for the market.
But that lower end does not tell the whole story.
What it really reflects is the widening divide within the vineyard segment itself. Lower-end pricing is showing up where buyers see more risk: weaker location, limited demand, uncertain water, older improvements, lack of contracts, or a less compelling long-term income outlook.
Meanwhile, well-located vineyards with contracts are still seeing normal pricing.
That is the real story.
The market is no longer valuing all vineyards the same way, and that distinction is becoming more pronounced.
Buyers are underwriting vineyards much more selectively
The report also reinforces a point that remains critical for vineyard owners: water continues to be a key differentiator.
CALASFMRA’s Central Coast coverage notes that properties without reliable irrigation water face softer demand and downward pressure on value, and that buyers are far more selective about what they view as a secure, long-term water supply. It also highlights added scrutiny in basins affected by SGMA and groundwater sustainability concerns, including areas such as Paso Robles and Cuyama.
That matters because vineyard buyers today are not simply buying planted acres. They are underwriting:
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water reliability
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contract security
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farming economics
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replanting or redevelopment risk
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location within the market
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and the long-term competitiveness of the asset
That is why two vineyards with similar acreage can perform very differently in the market.
What this means for vineyard owners on the Central Coast
For sellers, this is a market that rewards precision.
If a vineyard has location, water, quality farming history, and grape contracts, or a strong path to revenue continuity, it should not be positioned as if it belongs in the distressed or commodity end of the spectrum. Premium vineyards are still earning premium attention.
At the same time, the report is a reminder that the vineyard category as a whole is under pressure. Sellers need to be realistic about where their property fits and tell a sharper story around fundamentals, not just acreage or legacy perceptions of value.
For buyers, this is a market where discipline matters. There may be opportunity at the lower end of the range, but the discount only works if the underlying issues are solvable. That is exactly why better-located vineyards with proven contracts still justify stronger pricing: they offer more certainty in a market where certainty has become expensive.
Our view at VPRE
From our perspective, this year’s Trends® data reinforces a simple point: the vineyard market is no longer moving as one market.
There is a meaningful split between challenged vineyard assets and high-quality, well-located vineyards with contracts. The lower published range is important and newsworthy, but it does not define every property. The best vineyards are still behaving much closer to normal pricing, even in a softer overall environment.
That is the message owners, investors, and lenders should be paying attention to in 2026.
Source and credit
This commentary is based on Trends® in Agricultural Land & Lease Values 2026, published by the California Chapter of the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers (ASFMRA) and available through CALASFMRA at calasfmra.com.
Special thanks to the California Chapter / CALASFMRA leadership and committee members whose work supports the publication, including the chapter’s listed board leadership — Mike Ming, Matt Pennebaker, Sara Lockhart, Curtis Buono, Kyle Dalrymple, Janie Gatzman, Charlotte Mitchell, Mike Merkley, and Suzie Roget — and the listed Land Values Survey Co-Chairs: Todd Combs, Josh Mendrin, Matan Goldberg, and Scott Bozzo.
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